UKIP victory – Labour defeat?

In last night’s count of the European Elections the vote for UKIP soared, or so it seems.

Parties.png.display

The news that the British National Party last both their MEPs is not insignificant, because it seems that UKIP has absorbed the far right and anti immigration vote.  There is always a complication, this time it was a party with the snappy title An Independance from Europe.  What I have done is simply to take the percentage increase or deficit of the people who voted for UKIP, AIFE, BNP, English Democrats and NO2EU and added them. The anti EU figure is the sum of these figures (deficits being negative). Where a figure says 10.99 it is an increase of 10.99% as a proportion of the people who voted.

Region UKIP swing Anti EU swing Labour Swing
East Midlands 16.45 9.36 8.08
East of England 14.9 9.81 6.78
London 6.1 1.47 15.39
North East 13.81 6.79 11.49
North West 11.63 4.59 13.46
Scotland 5.23 3.13 5.11
South East 13.29 9.19 6.41
South West 10.23 7.35 6.09
Wales 14.76 9.51 7.86
West Midlands 10.23 3.16 9.71
Yorkshire and the Humber 13.7 5.33 10.56
Overall 10.99 6.42 9.67

There is only a 6.42% swing towards the anti EU parties, and 1.49% of these went to AIFE. leaving a swing to UKIP from the major parties of just under 5%.

Which is why I am finding it hard to believe the BBC coverage. It seems like they are in competition with Sky News to get on the right side of UKIP.

Yes it is a great victory for UKIP, but only half of that impact was at the expense of the three major parties, the rest was hoovering up votes which were from other anti EU parties. The racist BNP has been wiped out, so thank you UKIP for that. Yes, seriously, thank you.

The other thing I can’t believe about the BBC political coverage is the way that they are saying labour has been defeated.  Really?

Labour has increased it’s share of the vote from 15.7% of those voting in 2009 to 25.4% in 2014 and it is a defeat? How can this be? Labour has gained seats in the European Parliament and it is a defeat? Really? It might be in the world of the BBC political commentators, but not in the real world.

In the real world UKIP has difficulty getting voters out in a general election. People will turn up for UKIP for the European parliament but not for the UK parliament. This is the percentage of the vote for the last three European elections and  the UK election a year earlier.

Percentage of votes cast
Party 2004/2005 2009/2010 2014/2015
EU election General election EU election General election EU election General election
CONSERVATIVE 26.7 32.4 27.7 36.1 23.93 ?
LABOUR 22.6 35.2 15.7 29 25.4 ?
LIBERAL DEMOCRAT 14.9 22 13.7 23 6.87 ?
UKIP 16.1 2.3 16.5 3.1 27.49 ?

All the main parties increase their vote in a General Election, but Labour is particularly good. in 2005 they won the General Election despite having under 23% the tear before. The BBC are wrong to write Labour off on this recent result, it is higher than in 2004. Their commentators will look very silly if Labour goes on to win next year.

This may look like a Labour supporter bigging up his party. It is not.

I support the Liberal Democrats, pity me.


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