Here we go again?
There is a petition to parliament has been launched to re-run the British referendum on membership of the EU. I think that is a very bad idea.
To have a referendum in the first place was a bad idea. I voted, and what I votes for was not the majority position. But there should have never have been a referendum.
What happens in referenda is that complex issues get simplified. Co-convener of the Vote Leave campaign, Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice,Michael Gove, was right when he said that people do not like experts. He was right.
When the Remain politicians started bringing in experts to explain how the EU worked it worked against them. A lot of people do not like thinking about complicated issues. When you have finished a day in a tiring or stressful job you want to unwind. Evenings are for unwinding, weekends for fun stuff, sport and family. The politicians have to make things simple to get votes, otherwise people will vote by their gut reaction rather than using their intellect.
That is why we elect politicians, full time people to do the complicated stuff for us.
This is where David Cameron failed. In 6 years as Prime Minister this is his third referendum. Which shows a weakness in leadership: Not having the guts to make the hardest decisions. This time he lost the campaign and has done the honourable thing in resigning.
What will happen next?
We are not sure, and the inevitable has happened, the money markets have gone into freefall. Because one thing financiers fear most is uncertainty. As the government, under whoever in the new Prime Minister, negotiates new trade deals and agreements things will not be as uncertain. The money m
arkets will make some degree of recovery. I may or may not be to the level it was on June 22nd, but it will make an improvement.
There could also be another referendum on the EU. But not immediately, and not in response to a petition from those who lost.
The left wing’s nightmare could come true. This would be a blow to the harder end of the left wing political spectrum, who in any case were anti EU. But for the moderate left what they are now fearing may not be as bad as it looks.
The thing I am talking about is Boris Johnson becoming the next Prime Minister, or at least in a major government role.
Before the referendum campaign, Johnson was always mildly pro EU. I surprised people that he than campaigned against remaining in the union. But he said at the time that he was backing exit so that when the people said leave he could go back to the EU and get a better deal for Britain in the EU.
My message to the left leaning pro EU people is this, Boris Johnson is your best hope in the short term.